A few things on my radar #19

Peak Human; Tourism and Starbucks

An episode written on iPhone again ✈️

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Peak Human 🌍

In this week's Economist, I read a review of Johan Norberg's "Peak Human"—a critique of Trump—which left a deep impression on me.

Through Norberg's historical case studies—from Song China's technological golden age fueled by meritocratic governance and global trade, to Athenian and Roman prosperity driven by open markets and intellectual diversity—he distills a timeless truth: civilizations thrive when embracing exchange, dissent, and innovation. Conversely, Ming isolationism halved living standards within generations, while Rome’s decline followed currency debasement and ideological dogmatism.

This historical perspective demands vigilance about our present circumstances. The extraordinary global prosperity that emerged after 1990 is now threatened by rising protectionism. The MAGA movement's isolationist stance, echoes one of history's most serious errors—building "walls" instead of embracing "openness" on the path to prosperity

As Norberg observes: Decline is not destiny but decision. This analysis aligns with

PC

's concerns about Trump's ambiguous agenda—while some await his strategic vision behind the “wall”, his intentions remain opaque—one cannot help but worry about the repetition of tragic history. Yet the core challenge now transcends any single leader: Will societies heed history's warning that closed systems breed stagnation and collective pains?

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Tourism ✈️

Chinese holiday consumer spending shows modest growth

• The May Day holiday, one of China's longest, serves as a key indicator of consumer confidence. During the May Day holiday, Chinese travelers' spending increased 8% year-on-year to ¥180.27 billion ($24.92 billion). However, spending remained below pre-pandemic levels, and the country's services activity grew at its slowest pace in seven months this April, said Reuters.

• To stimulate holiday spending, Chinese localities integrated local attractions with various initiatives. These included streamlined entry procedures (such as visa-free policies) for international tourists, optimized tax refunds with "immediate refunds upon purchase," tourism subsidies through culture and tourism vouchers, and special events featuring music festivals, themed homestays, and digital experiences.

What the data cannot show is that China's travel experience is improving.

During my ongoing travels to Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, and Guiyang, what impressed me most was how each city strives to cultivate its unique identity. They work diligently to uncover their local culture, resources, and distinctive assets to create authentic tourism experiences—a refreshing departure from the homogeneous, artificial, and sometimes deceptive tourist attractions of the past.

However, I don't recommend visiting popular cities during the May Day holiday. Not only are accommodation and flight prices significantly higher than usual, but the overwhelming crowds will severely diminish your experience. Unless you don't mind queuing an hour for bubble tea or spending an entire day stuck halfway up a mountain with throngs of people.

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Starbucks ☕️

Starbucks' Q2'25 same-store sales plateaued, offering temporary relief from previous declines

• Starbucks China comparable store sales were flat, driven by a 4% increase in comparable transactions, offset by a 4% decline in average ticket.

• The chain, once synonymous with coffee in China, fell to 14 per cent of the market in 2024 from 34 per cent in 2019, according to Euromonitor International. Same-store sales in China dropped 8 per cent in fiscal 2024, according to the company’s financial report, said SCMP.

• According to Canyan, a food and beverage data provider, 66,920 coffee shops opened in China—the world's second-largest economy—over the past year. After accounting for closures, this resulted in a net increase of nearly 12,000 stores.

As I mentioned in my previous post, since Luckin has narrowed its price war and Starbucks' products are improving - at least some products can be considered "tasty" to me, which is reflected in their China region performance - they've finally halted their declining trend after 6 consecutive quarters, though this comes at the cost of a lower average ticket price.

However, Starbucks China's challenges are far from over—halting the decline is just the first step. The company's product issues still persist, and they remain serious.

Take Starbucks' recent bizarre coffee creation — the mixed berry Americano, which is practically poison. If it weren't for

Fei Fei

kindly pointing it out, I wouldn't have believed Starbucks could make such garbage. How could such a terrible coffee end up on the menu? Don't they do consumer testing?

This reflects serious gaps in Starbucks' product quality control stability. I don't expect Starbucks to innovate like Luckin does with a new product every three days on average—as I mentioned in my previous post, because Luckin's model is almost impossible to replicate. But at least don't feed me "poison"!